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 The US Presidential Election |  The US presidential election is now 2 days away. It has already become the most expensive election in history, including the primaries more then $1000000000 has been spent trying to win this office.
With 2 days to go Obama leads McCain 50.4 to 43.9 on pollster.com's composite tracking, and it looks like we're two days away from a historic victory. The other meta-polling site, fivethirtyeight.com, has weighed the different polls to come up with a 52.2% to 46.6% lead in Obama's favor.
Since the US election is decided state by state, and with Obama leading in several key states, they rate his odds of winning this thing at 96.2% - talk about hubris (or Truman v Dewey for those of you who are political junkies).
One big caveat in all of this. The polling models used to get these numbers all assume a huge Democratic turnout. The Democrats have registered millions of new votes this election cycle, and if those new 18-35 year old votes actually show up Obama has won... BUT if the turnout is similar to past elections then McCain is actually to favored win this thing.
Exciting few days indeed. |
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| Comments |
on November 02 2008 14:39:12
A good explanation on why the pollsters expect a huge Democratic turnout. |
on November 02 2008 16:15:44
Funny thing about polls and presidents. Bush is the most hated and most loved, trusted president of all time. After 9/11. 95% of the US trusted him and tought he was doing a great job. 15% or there about was the low, but I can't remember when or why. |
on November 02 2008 21:28:42
http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm |
on November 03 2008 09:59:01
Hello, Norlander
You have already made your prediction. It was:
* 56 Democratic Senate seats
* 42 Republican Senate seats
* 259 Democratic House seats
* 176 Republican House seats
* 385 Obama Electoral Votes
* 153 McCain Electoral Votes
* 52.5 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
* 42.9 McCain Popular Vote Percentage |
on November 04 2008 01:50:14
An unexpected turn of events on the eve of the election. Barack Obama's grandmother has died tonight of cancer. This is the woman who raised him. She is the one on his high-school, college and university graduation photographs, and is the foundation of his scholarly (he is a constitutional lawyer) and political success - and she died on the eve of the election...
The mental stress of being one day from making history, and his primary caregiver dying, has to be unbearable. |
on November 04 2008 01:58:09
Barack Obama'%3Bs campaign appearance following the news. |
on November 04 2008 05:47:02
First results from Dixville Notch and Hart's Landing (the real world inspiration to Hartsfield's Landing in the West Wing) are already in. These are two small towns in New Hampshire that have a tradition to get everyone to vote at the stroke of midnight, so delivering their results far ahead of the rest.
Obama carried these two small towns by a 2 to 1 margin. First time a democrat has won there since 1968. This might turn into a landslide... |
on November 04 2008 15:15:02
Seems the voting lines are massive, and the turnout is on track to shatter the records. |
on November 05 2008 06:17:33
And Obama wins an historic victory!
Remembering his speech that Will.I.Am made into a music video back in February - Yes We Can.
We can make this world a better place, and America returning to it's place as a beacon of hope and admiration is crucial for making this a better World. |
on November 05 2008 08:32:08
I'm not sure if I'm happier that Obama won, or that the election is finally over...
Ok, I'm more happy that Obama won. |
on November 05 2008 09:14:15
Great election speech. Really made you believe change is possible. Now for the dissapointment...
only 3 hours of sleep :/ |
on November 05 2008 10:41:32
It seems Proposition 8 has been passed in California (i.e. gays will lose their right to marriage) |
on November 17 2008 10:00:28
Link to a post that has the Obama's first post election interview on 60 minutes.
Watching the interview made me feel that finally somebody intelligent is going to be in the most powerful office in the World. And Obama actually comes off like a good guy, unlike Clinton who had a bit too much of JFK's "do as I say, not as I do" mentality. Not that I dislike Clinton or JFK, I'll take smart over morality in that office. It's just nicer to have somebody that is smart AND has a moral standard, and I think you need to go back to Eisenhower or Truman to find the last one with those qualities.
Best bit: Interviewer: "Are you going to close Guantanamo?
Obama: "Yes"
Very much to the point and no politico-speak. |
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